"Should I wait for prices to drop?" It's the most common question we hear, and in 2026 the answer is clearer than ever: probably not. Hardware keeps getting cheaper, but the federal rebate that discounts every installation shrinks each January — and right now, the rebate is falling faster than prices are. Here's where the numbers sit mid-2026.
What a solar system costs in 2026
According to published industry price indexes as at July 2026, the average residential system in Australia is sitting at roughly $0.88–$0.95 per watt fully installed — after the STC rebate and including GST. In practical terms, that puts a typical 6.6kW system at around $5,000–$6,000 installed in most states, with a 10kW system commonly landing somewhere in the $8,000–$10,000 range depending on your location, roof and hardware choices.
Those are averages, not promises. Prices vary by state, roof complexity (two-storey homes, tile roofs and three-phase power all add cost) and, above all, component quality — so treat any figure here as a starting point and confirm real pricing with your installer.
Budget, mid-range and premium tiers
- Budget systems use lesser-known panel brands and entry-level inverters. They can work fine, but warranty support depends heavily on the importer staying in business.
- Mid-range systems pair well-reviewed tier-one panels with established inverter brands — the sweet spot for most households.
- Premium systems with high-efficiency panels and top-shelf inverters or microinverters typically cost around 20–30% more than the average, and earn it back through better performance in heat and shade and longer, better-supported warranties.
What's actually included in the price
A legitimate installed price should cover the panels, inverter, mounting and racking, cabling, labour, grid connection paperwork, and GST — with the STC rebate already deducted. If a quote looks unusually cheap, check what's missing: is the switchboard upgrade extra? Travel charges? Is the "10kW" price actually for a smaller inverter? Our solar tips page covers the classic cheap-quote traps in detail.
Why waiting costs more: the STC step-down
The federal Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme discounts your system upfront through small-scale technology certificates (STCs). The number of certificates your system earns depends on the "deeming period" — the years remaining until the scheme ends in 2030 — and that period drops by one year every 1 January until the scheme winds up.
Install in 2026 and your system is deemed for five years of generation; wait until 2027 and it's four. That's roughly a 20% cut to the certificate count for an identical system — a reduction in the effective rebate that has, in recent years, outpaced any fall in hardware prices over the same twelve months. And each January the step gets proportionally steeper: four years to three is a 25% cut, three to two is 33%.
In other words: the cheapest day to buy a quality system this decade is more likely to be this year than next. Our solar rebates guide explains how the STC discount works and what state incentives can stack on top. And if you're weighing up storage too, note that battery incentives have their own step-down timelines — see our solar battery guide for how the numbers stack up.
The cheap-quote warning
The flip side of falling prices is a race to the bottom. A rock-bottom quote often signals rushed installs, unaccredited subcontractors or hardware chosen purely on price — and a warranty that's worthless if the company folds. The gap between a cheap system and a quality one is often only a couple of thousand dollars spread over 25 years of operation. Checking solar reviews of both the hardware and the installer before you commit is time well spent.
Compare before you commit
Because prices vary this much by region, roof and hardware tier, the only way to know what your home should cost is to put several installers head to head. Compare up to three free, no-obligation quotes from pre-vetted local installers — get quotes today and lock in this year's rebate before the January step-down.
